indymana

PLAYER TAKES

JEREMIYAH LOVE – PLAYER COMPARISON LESEAN MCCOY

Jeremiyah Love is the next cornerstone back to enter the league. With the speed and elusiveness of a lighter back but enough size to play every down. Love has incredible acceleration and lateral agility, paired with exception vision, hands, and elite route running out of the backfield. Love is poised to land in the crosshairs of your rookie draft at the 1.01 and in your startups at the 1-2 turn. There is a ton to like but just as much to Love in his profile.

JORDYN TYSON – PLAYER COMPARISON GARRETT WILSON

Jordyn Tyson is an explosive athlete with a ton of wiggle and lateral agility. He has a flair for the exceptional play and is one of the best separators in the class. Tyson has dealt with several unrelated injuries during his time in college which has led some analysts to suggest he is injury prone. From muy perspective he’s had some bad luck. Tyson is a good route runner but has room to improve which is exciting as it’s fair to say he may likely end up being the best receiver in his class and possess the potential to be a superstart.

CARNELL TATE – PLAYER COMPARISON KENNY GOLLADAY

Carnell Tate is a next level ready receiver, as solid as they come, a contested catch winner, and possibly the best hands in the class. Tate has a career 4% drop rate and had zero drops during the 2025 college season. Tate can win at every level and can be deployed from anywhere on the line. While he is as pro ready of a receiver as you’ll see, he may not possess what it takes to be the best receiver on a team or a superstar for the league or dynasty. That remains to be seen. Tate has never been the best receiver on his team and while he’s played alongside some great receivers, I believe he had an opportunity to rise above in 2024.

FERNANDO MENDOZA – PLAYER COMPARISON ALEX SMITH

Fernando Mendoza is as pro ready of a QB prospect as I’ve seen in some time. Mendoza possesses a strong arm, an excellent ability to read pre and post snap defense, and has a killer instinct to rise to the occasion when his team needs it most. His ball placement and instincts are elite. He has functional mobility though he will likely deploy it only when necessary at the next level. Coming from an RPO heavy offense and playing from the gun will require an adjustment period for Mendoza but the cerebral Mendoza will rise to the challenge undoubtedly.

MAKAI LEMON – PLAYER COMPARISON DOUG BALDWIN

Makai Lemon is an explosive player with the ball in his hands. He earns separation against man and zone. Lemon was deployed primarily from the slot in college and figures to have similar usage in the league. Lemon possesses strong hands at the catch point and ferocity after the catch. He has a nose for the endzone and figures to be an immediate contributor at the next level.

KC CONCEPCION – PLAYER COMPARISON GOLDEN TATE

KC Concepcion is a versatile receiver with the ability to line up anywhere. He’s electric with the ball in his hands and has big play ability. KC has break away speed as displayed at the combine, but unlink some other burners he possesses lateral quickness and wiggle which helps in his excellent route running. Concepcion has struggled with drops on paper, but he hasn’t had the best quality QB play during his college tenure. Look for Concepcion to make an instant impact at the next level.

KENYON SADIQ – PLAYER COMPARISON VERNON DAVIS

Kenyon Sadiq is an athletic freak, the likes of which the league hasn’t seen in two decades since Vernon Davis was drafted. Sadiq is jacked, fast, and id break the all-time season catch record for Oregon in 2025 with 51. Those 51 catches however did only result in 560 yards and 8 touchdowns. The touchdowns are great. The yards not as impressive. Sadiq while being the freak that his is still profiles as a tweener. He’s a little short and a little light. He may be more of a move tight end at the next level. If he is, he didn’t necessarily show upside for that deployment as his fellow Oregon TE Jamari Johson showed flashes in that are while on the same field. Ultimately Sadiq is an unproven asset. Maybe the offense he was in didn’t lend itself to utilize him as a weapon or maybe he isn’t as much of one as he is on paper. Time will tell.

JADARIAN PRICE – PLAYER COMPARISON KENNETH WALKER

Jadarian Price is an electric runner both as a running back and a returner. Prce is laterally quick and explosive in the short area. His vision is excellent which makes up for his homerun speed. Price can and will absolutely have break away runs but his measured speed at the combine would lead you to believe any breakaway from him would be an outlier. Price played his entire college career behind what some believe to be a true generational talent. Let’s be honest, we don’t know how durable he can be, what type of workload he can handle, or even if he can consistently catch the ball. What we have to go on is exceptional and the Seattle Seahawks agreed spending the 32nd overall pick of the 1st round in the 2026 draft on the heir apparent to the recently departed Kenneth Walker.

ELI STOWERS – PLAYER COMPARISION EVAN ENGRAM

Eli Stowers is a phenomenal athlete as he showed at the combine. The converted QB has showed excellent route running ability and strong hands at the catch point. Stowers does not possess the size to be an effective blocker either in college or the next level. With the league moving more and more to 12 and 13 personnel it bodes well for Stowers to have ample usage even as a move TE as he profiles to be. Stowers may have a slower start to his career playing behind Dallas Goedert but look for Stowers to outshine the incumbent once he gets his shot.

OMAR COOPER JR – PLAYER COMPARISON JERRY JEUDY

Omar Cooper Jr. is a versatile player who can play inside or out. Copper wins at the catch point and is able to separate at all levels of the field. Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of Coopers’ game is his YAC ability. He is a shifty runner and has the ability to win with physicality after the catch. His speed surprised some at the combine running 4.42 but this speed shows up on tape and helps explain how we won so frequently in 2025. 2025 was a break out season for Cooper in the Indiana offense having spent his entire college career there before being catapulted to relevance.

TY SIMPSON – PLAYER COMPARISON TAYLOR HEINICKE

Ty Simpson had an excellent start to his collegiate career albeit in his senior season after waiting his turn for 3 years. The second half of the season would prove to be concerning as Simpson’s accuracy and success waivered. Simpson has functional mobility but isn’t the best throwing on the run or out of phase. Simpon does have an excellent arm for his size. He is a little smaller both in height and weight than ideal which only adds to the questions surrounding him as a prospect. 15 collegiate starts and is drafted to a spot where he will sit and learn again. Hard to say what he will be when his time comes.

DENZEL BOSTON – PLAYER COMPARISON MICHAEL PITTMAN

Denzel Boston is an old school X receiver in size and in function. Boston is a large man who is quick in his breaks but not fast by any stretch of the imagination. Boston will not separate in a straight line but will win at the stem of his routes, via back shoulder throws, or contested catches. His large frame leads to a large catch radius that will be friendly to the quarterback on have to have it plays and in the red area.

CHRIS BELL – PLAYER COMPARISON ANQUAN BOLDIN

Chris Bell is an outside possession receiver with unusual size and build for his position. Bell is also a burner on tape but his true speed is unknown as he wasn’t able to test at the combine due to a torn ACL he suffered in the fall of the 2025 college football season. The injury certainly took a toll on the draft capital Bell would have enjoyed as prior to it he was widely considered a fringe first round talent. Bell’s usage at Louisville left some questions as to his route running capability but his athleticism on tape can certainly lead to some excitement around the possibilities. Bell’s landing spot could easily seem him slot in to the teams WR1 when he’s able to take the field this fall.

JONAH COLEMAN – PLAYER COMPARISON RAY RICE

Jonah Coleman is a 3 down workhorse style back who is proficient at the catch and up the middle. His short stocky build aids in his powerful running style and in pass protection in which he is excellent. Coleman will not wow anyone with straight line speed and he profiles as a player who will not get too many breakaway runs during his career. Coleman did not test at the combine nor at his pro day as he is well aware testing would not have done him any favors. Nonetheless Coleman should enjoy a successful career as a 3 down back or in a committee.

DE’ZHAUN STRIBLING – PLAYER COMPARISON ROMEO DOUBS

De’Zhaun Stribling is a late bloomer but, bloom he did. Stribling enjoyed tremendous success down the stretch in the 2025 CFP with Mississippi. Stribling is not a fluid mover and is not a polished route runner but he has a nose for the ball and the big moment. He has the size to win in contested catch situations and to bully the defensive back he’s locked up with. Stribling’s draft capital was a surprise to everyone except the San Francisco head office, with a healthy 33rd overall. Stribling is all upside. With what he showed down the stretch and the known dumbed down offense at Mississippi, he has plenty of runway to grow as a player in the leage.

MAX KLARE – PLAYER COMPARISON GREG DULCICH

Max Klare broke out in a big way at Purdue in 2024. Klare decided to take his talents to Ohio State in 2025 and unfortunately that decision didn’t yield the results anyone would wish for. There are some ways to explain that away by discussing the way OSU utilizes the TE and the perennial best wide receiver group in the country. Klare has the requisite size to play inline but also possesses plus athleticism to be a move TE. He is versatile and can run a full route tree. Klare might be best used as a strictly move tight end should he shed the weight he put on this last season. A noticeable dip in movement ability on the field this season can be attributed to his putting on weight to be a lead blocker.

EMMETT JOHNSON – PLAYER COMPARISON JAMES COOK

Emmett Johnson is a shifty fidgety runner with a unique gate and approach to the position. His lack of size would make him an outlier to be a workhorse back despite him being just that for the Nebraska offense in 2025. Johnson does not possess break away speed but is quite quick in the short area. Johnson is a prolific pass catcher and he profiles to be just that on Sundays however his pass protection game needs work if his frame will allow it. Johnson is an interesting prospect that has a chance to become more than it appears on paper.

KAYTRON ALLEN – PLAYER COMPARISON LATE CAREER ADRIAN PETERSON

Kaytron Allen is a powerful runner. He is well built and is a grinder between the tackles. Allen will not go down on first contact and will always fall forward. He does not possess break away speed and he profiles as a early down back. It’s important to acknowledge that his pass catching ability has not been on fully display as he played alongside a prolific pass catcher for the entirely of his Penn State tenure. Allen is good in pass protection though his limited lateral agility shows up in that part of his game as well much to the detriment of his quarterback. Allen’s landing spot after the draft leaves some opportunity for early production and he should be given some consideration in the mid 2nd round of your rookie drafts.

KAELON BLACK – PLAYER COMPARISON KYLE MONANGAI

Kaelon Black is a small compact powerful back who wins with acceleration and attacks the lime of scrimmage. Black is relentless and fearless. He does not win with lateral agility or shifty movements. He moves with violence and desire. Black did not receive significant pass catching work in college but Indiana didn’t use the backs in that way. His draft capital was a complete surprise to everyone except San Francisco who tends to reach on players. Black was taken in the 3rd round while his running mate Roman Hemby who sported similar numbers. Hemby was invited to the combine, Black was not. Figure that one out. Black is the next back in line waiting for injury in San Francisco. Will he get an opportunity? Take your shot.

MIKE WASHINGTON JR. – PLAYER COMPARISON JAY AJAYI

Mike Washington Jr. is an athletic freak with combine results to prove it. Washington has elite speed and it does translate to explosive plays. Washington is a bit of a one cut runner who doesn’t invite contact the way you’d like to see a guy built like him to. Washington is an average pass catcher but has plus ability in pass protection. Washington landing in Las Vegas behind Ashton Jeanty is unfortunate for fantasy managers but there is some hype regarding the desire for the new leadership in Vegas to use two backs. Look to take your shot on Washington somewhere in the 2nd round.

NICHOLAS SINGLETON – PLAYER COMPARISON TREY BENSON

Nicholas Singleton is an explosive athlete but did not get an opportunity to display it at the combine due to a foot fracture he suffered at the Senior Bowl. Singleton is a bit of a disappointing prospect for those that followed his career at Penn State. Singleton was expected to be a high pick had he declared for the 2024 draft but he instead went back to school. In 2025 his lack of vision led to him being supplanted by Kaytron Allen as the workhorse. Singleton is fast and if it’s blocked up and clear he will go the distance, he is not much of a lateral mover or tackle breaker. If someone can unlock his vision or scheme him to match his skillset he could be a league winner. Choose wisely in the 2nd round of your rookie drafts.

ELI RARIDON – PLAYER COMPARISON BRENTON STRANGE

Eli Raridon is three years removed from an ACL tear, his second on the same knee. That injury seems very much in the rearview mirror as Raridon had an excellent 2025 college season. Raridon is a three down TE who is a superb separator for a man of his size. Raridon sports some elite speed at the TE position which will allow him to be a field stretcher. Raridon will make friends with the quarterback he protects and the receivers he paves the way for, in turn he should receive immediate impact when his number is called in his rookie season.

JUSTIN JOLY – PLAYER COMPARISON ISAIAH LIKELY

Justn Joly is a tall lanky move TE who will need to play in 12 or 13 personnel. Joly has fantastic hands and an innate ability to operate in zone coverages. He is physical at the catch point and after the catch. A converted WR Joly shows that lateral agility even at his larger size. At the next level it may behoove Joly to drop a little weight and capitalize on the traits that truly make him an exception to the rule.

ELI HEIDENREICH – PLAYER COMPARISON DANNY WOODHEAD

Eli Heidenreich is an electric explosive weapon who’s collegiate deployment was as both a running back and wide receiver at Navy. Heidenreich is a bit of a tweener in size which is undoubtedly part of what led to his fall to the late 7th round of the 2026 NFL Draft. Heidenreich is fun to watch on film. As a receiver shades of Julian Edelman and as a rusher squint and see Christian McCaffrey. The size along with the bizarre offense ran at Navy have led many to wonder if his talent will translate at the next level. Heidenreich is a prolific pass catcher and runner in the open field. If even 75% of his ability translates he could be a monster steal in the 3rd round of your rookie drafts.

ANTONIO WILLIAMS – PLAYER COMPARISON JAYDEN REED

Antonio Williams is a quick slot receiver with upside to play on the outside at least in some formations. He has a nose for the ball and is an excellent hands catcher. An elite separator Williams could earn high target volume as the potential WR2 on his Washington team behind the aging Terry McLaurin. It’s unknown if Williams can play an extensive amount on the outside but if so he could prove to be a steal in the 2nd round of your rookie drafts.

GERMIE BERNARD – PLAYER COMPARISION RANDALL COBB

Germie Bernard is a possession receiver who was versatile in his deployment in college. Bernard wins with route running and a keen understanding of zone coverages. Bernard does not possess special speed or quickness but has size and strength to gain YAC and to be physical at the catch point. Bernard’s lack of speed and height will likely lead to him being a slot player in the league. Bernard doesn’t mind mixing it up on running plays and his gritty play style undoubtedly led to his selection by the Pittsburgh Steelers.

TED HURST – PLAYER COMPARISON COREY DAVIS

Ted Hurst is a fluid mover, who has tremendous size and speed. Hurst is the prototype of a superstar WR1 in body type and athleticism. Unfortunately he spent his college career playing low level competition so his ceiling is a bit unknown. Hurst lands in a crowded receiver room in Tampa Bay so do not expect the answers to the test to come anytime soon. The risk seems worth taking somewhere in the 3rd round of your rookie drafts.

CHRIS BRAZZELL II – PLAYER COMPARISON MARQUES VALDES – SCANTLING

Chris Brazzell is a tall skinny receiver with excellent speed. Brazzell enjoyed a stellar year at Tennessee in 2025. While the helmet scouting says avoid, some context is in order. Brazzell played his last season at Tennessee but previously played at Tulane. Brazzell did not show out in Tulane, so did he grow as a player or did the schemed up targets lead to his success this past season. Hard to tell. Draft with caution.

SKYLER BELL – PLAYER COMPARISON DIONTAE JOHNSON

Skyler Bell is slight but quick possession receiver who profiles to be a slot receiver at the next level. Bell wins with speed only, he certainly has the want to but not the physicality to win against physical defensive backs. Bell will likely be best utilized in schemed touches in space where he can create with his speed and lateral agility. Bell played in the ACC at UCONN after beginning his college career at Wisconsin. Bell did perform well when playing higher levels of competition over his last two seasons.

ELIJAH SARRATT – PLAYER COMPARISON MARQUES COLSTON

Elijah Sarratt is a good size possession receiver who played primarily outside in college. Sarratt does not possess the speed required to play outside in a typical fashion in the league. Sarratt wins with close proximity quickness, route running, and stellar hands. What Sarratt lacks in athleticism he makes up for in an innate ability to physically win at the stem and catch point. In the league it would behoove the offensive coordinator to utilize Sarratt in the slot and have him operate underneath and his quarterback should grow to trust him in early downs and 3rd down opportunities. While homerun plays will be few and far between PPR goodness and redzone opportunities should be bountiful for Sarratt.

SAM ROUSH – PLAYER COMPARISON PAT FREIERMUTH

Sam Roush is a large physical inline TE. Roush is 6’ 6” 267 lbs but moves far better than his size would indicate. Roush is a tremendous blocker and receiver but played on a Stanford team that struggled in the pass game during his time there. Given his team situation his upside is a projection but on film he displays enough to make a strong argument that he is a worthy prospect. Roush does have very short arms which certainly does show on film. His catch radius is hindered by his 8th percentile wingspan. Roush was drafted by Chicago in the 3rd round and he projects to be Kmet’s replacement long term with Loveland being the preferred weapon in that TE room.

OSCAR DELP – PLAYER COMPARISON CHIG OKONKWO

Oscar Delp is a freak athlete. Delp is a little light for an inline tight end and profiles to be a move tight end at the next level. Delp runs in the 4.4’s but does also sport a small wingspan. Delp never really broke out in his 4 years in Georgia so his prospects are a projection but where you will be able to draft him in your rookie drafts may be worth a roll of the dice.

ADAM RANDALL – PLAYER COMPARISON KALEL MULLINGS

Adam Randall is a large man, tall and sizeable for a running back. That fact could be because he in fact hasn’t been a running back. Randall converted to RB in 2025 from WR. As a WR frankly he wasn’t good. It was good fortune for him that he switched and ended up being drafted as he wouldn’t have as a WR. Randall is an upright runner who has some obvious pass catching chops and when duty calls he can lower the boom. Randall was drafted to backup Derrick Henry, a fitting landing spot for the already large running back room in Baltimore.

SETH MCGOWAN – PLAYER COMPARISON JACORY CROSKEY-MERRITT

Seth McGowan is a slippery downhill runner. McGowan has excellent lateral agility and a nonstop motor. McGowan runs like he has a chip on his shoulder and he undoubtedly does. McGowan had some serious legal concerns that led him to being dismissed from Oklahoma and he spent the next several years working his way back to relevancy. In 2025 McGowan found himself at KY where he split carries but was effective. McGowan suffered a draft fall believed to be attributed to his off the field concerns. McGowan seemed to be better than a round 7 talent and he could very well outplay DJ Giddens to be the primary back to Jonathan Taylor in Indy his rookie season.

DEMOND CLAIBORNE – PLAYER COMPARISON KEATON MITCHELL

Demond Claiborne is explosive back who is on the small side. Claiborne likely will only be able to handle gadget or 3rd down work at the next level. Claiborne does not possess the most lateral agility despite the size and consequently needs a hole to hit for the homerun play. Claiborne is also a little disappointing in the passing game, fumbles and drops have played a part in the story of this prospect. Claiborne’s landing spot does lend itself to opportunity. Time will tell if he capitalizes.

MALACHI FIELDS – PLAYER COMPARISON CEDRIC TILLMAN

Malachi Fields is a large lumbering X receiver who can get up to speed but is in no way fast. Fields wins with contested catches as he is relatively unable to separate.

Fields never really broke out in college which obviously is a red flag and unfortunately he lands in a spot where he will likely be used as a sacrificial X most of the time. Perhaps Fields’ size will lend itself to high TD upside. Time will tell.

BRYCE LANCE – PLAYER COMPARISION CHRISTIAN WATSON

Bryce Lance is a tall fast well built X field stretching receiver who wins downfield. Lance built a rapport with his first year QB in 2025 and in both this and last year he finished with more than 1,000 yards. His production and profile while impressive did come in the FCS against less than impressive competition. Interestingly similar production was had at the same school by his lazy comparison of Christian Watson.

Lance profiles similarly and with any luck he’ll perform as well in the future and perhaps we can avoid the injuries Waston has suffered. Perhaps Bryce can save the family name as it looks like the ship has sailed for Trey.

JA’KOBI LANE – PLAYER COMPARISON RASHOD BATEMAN

Ja’Kobi Lane is a tall vertical threat downfield X receiver who lacks short area quickness and toughness for his size. Lane isn’t the best contested catch merchant but has a penchant for the flashy play. Lane’s highlight reels are fun to watch but the breadth of his tape is somewhat underwhelming given his size athleticism. Lane can win downfield with build up speed but most of his explosives will come on defensive mistakes and not outrunning the coverage. Lane lands in a Baltimore WR room who barely makes the WR1 a WR1 so his upside is capped to say the least.

ZACHARIAH BRANCH – PLAYER COMPARISON TAYLOR GABRIEL

Zachariah Branch is very small slot or gadget only receiver who has electric speed. Branch is shifty, quick, and elusive. Branch was used almost entirely as a gadget player receiving nearly all of his target at or behind the line of scrimmage. Branch is quite simply not ready to play receiver at the next level unless he’s got an outstanding release package and route tree he’s never deployed. Perhaps this is the fault of the teams for whom he’s played or perhaps he’s proven he can’t do it.

Wanna gamble?

COLE PAYTON – PLAYER COMPARISON TAYSON HILL MEETS MARK BRUNNELL

Cole Payton is a bad man. Powerful lefty QB with a weird release but an effective one. Payton is a beast as a runner. He truly is like Taysom Hill meets Mark Brunnell. Taysom Hill as a runner with more of a Brunnell arm. Payton undoubtedly needs refinement both from a mechanics standpoint but from running an offense/reading defense standpoint. Playing at NDSU and for just one year he’s got some training to do and he’s a bit on the older side for a prospect. The Eagles landing spot is just about the most perfect fit though as you can squint into a mirror and see a little Hurts…. Maybe?

CADE KLUBNIK – PLAYER COMPARISON BAKER MAYFIELD

Cade Klubnik is an athlete at QB. Klubnik had a bit of a fall from grace this season. At the conclusion of the 2024 season Klubnik was widely considered a first round pick. This season was abysmal for Clemson on the whole. Rumors have it that the offense completely changed this season for Klubnik and he did not respond to the changes well. Klubnik seems to be a coachable guy who can manage a game for you. His ceiling may not be that of Baker Mayfield but more like Tannehill. Either way in this class if you can get a guy worthy of starting you must take a shot at them.

GARRETT NUSSMEIER – PLAYER COMPARISION MAC JONES

Garrett Nussmeier is a conundrum. He looks like a guy who can be a backup but possesses the arm and mentality to play like Favre. At the end of 2024 Nussmeier looked to be first round pick. This season was a train wreck for Nussmeier. An early season injury persisted throughout the season and he plainly looked awful despite his excellent 2024 tape. Son of a current OC in the league you know he knows the game so the question becomes why did he fall to the 7th even with the tape from 2025? During the combine an MRI found a cyst on his spine which is believed to have been the genesis of his issue throughout the season. Was it that or the rumors of poor interviews? Who knows. Choose your own adventure for the Mahomes hopeful backup.

DREW ALLAR – PLAYER COMPARISON JACOB EASON

Drew Allar is everything any NFL franchise wants at QB except he can’t play the position. He’s huge and not in a bad way. 6’ 5” 225 pounds with a howitzer for an arm. He’s got an immense amount of work to do if it’s doable at all. Allar has some tape where he looks the part but overall he’s inaccurate, has poor mechanics, and cannot process. Time will tell if Penn State failed him or if he failed Penn State.

TAYLEN GREEN – PLAYER COMPARISON JUSTIN FIELDS

Taylen Green is a freak athlete who just happens to play the QB position. He doesn’t play it well but he lines up that way. Green played in an RPO exclusive offense and when he did pass his accuracy was often horrible and his mechanics are tough to watch. Green is a stupid athlete so it’s the story old as time. Hyper athlete stays convicted on his position limiting his production and ultimately his career. I would love nothing more than for another one of these guys to make it but don’t be surprised if he’s eventually cut from a practice squad and finally commits to changing positions when it’s too late to become proficient.

MATTHEW HIBNER – PLAYER COMPARISON CADE OTTON

Matthew Hibner is a pass catching TE. Hibner excels in the contested catch. Hibner is rather quick for his size and it shows down the seam. A lot of discussion about Hibner being drafted to be the heir apparent to Mark Andrews in Baltimore but his profile suggests this is the Likely replacement.

WILL KACMAREK – PLAYER COMPARISON DAWSON KNOX

Will Kacmarek is an inline TE with limited production to project future success. Kacmarek played alongside Max Klare at Ohio State and both spent a lot of time blocking for NFL level prospects and less time running routes. Kacmarek definitely has the chops to play at the next level but his usage in the pass game is pure projection. Kacmarek did land in a spot in Miami where opportunities could be abundant early in his rookie season.

TANNER KOZIOL – PLAYER COMPARISON DONALD PARHAM

Tanner Koziol is a tall inline or move TE who seems slight but it’s because he’s 6’ 7”.

Koziol sports good hands and is actually a good blocker despite his immense height.

Koziol is going to be a problem in the redzone and if deployed correctly will be a fantasy asset. He does look a little awkward at times getting hit low which concerns me in his long term durability though that hasn’t proven to be an issue to date.

CARSON BECK – PLAYER COMPARISON KENNY PICKETT

Carson Beck had as lengthy a college career as one can have. Beck had success throughout but if you look at the statistics or just watch you can see he’s been on great teams where he didn’t have to be the deciding factor for their success. Beck is a game manager who doesn’t possess elite athleticism, arm talent, decision making, or ability to read defenses. Beck has proven to be steady and likely will hold a clipboard really well at the next level. If a team has an injury he would be capable fill in if surrounded by excellent talent. Beck has infamous off the field issues and attitude concerns that do not lend themselves to being the type of teammate that a QB room will embrace.

JACK ENDRIES – PLAYER COMPARISON DANIEL BELLINGER

Jack Endries is a move TE. He’s had the good fortune of playing with Fernando Mendoza at Cal and Arch Manning at Texas during his college career. He profiles as a weapon in the pass game that should excel at the next level given the opportunity. Lucky for Endries though he fell to the 7th round he lands in Cincinnati where Burrow will capitalize on Endries talents if indeed they were worthy of better draft capital.

MICHAEL TRIGG – PLAYER COMPARISON JARED COOK

Michael Trigg is a move TE. He is a highlight reel darling. Trigg is not a hyper athlete but is “bendy” and has a flair for the exceptional play. There have been reports and some tape evidence to taking plays off, lack of effort, and being a poor teammate otherwise. If a team can harness his ability his upside it immense but clearly there is some merit to the concerns as Trigg did go undrafted. Dallas has signed him as a UDFA and I can’t imagine a better spot for him to get opportunity behind the vanilla flavored TE room for the Cowboys.

99: BRENEN THOMPSON

Brenen Thompson is a blur on the field. A sub 4.3 guy Thompson does show promise in ball tracking. He could be more than a cardio king. Anytime Mike McDaniel is pounding the table for you to be drafted that’s someone you should consider drafting yourself.

99: CALEB DOUGLAS

Douglas was a surprise riser in the NFL Draft. Drafted by Miami round 3 pick 11. Douglas seems like a reach while his tape does show some interesting movement ability and some contested catch promise as well. He’s got nothing but opportunity in front of him.

99: CJ DONALDSON

CJ Donaldson has no attributes that make him an NFL talent. He may be able to pass protect, beyond that nothing special. I’d be surprised if he stayed on a practice squad. Leave him on waivers.

99: DEAN CONNORS

Dean Connors was a workhorse back on a bad college team. He was asked to do everything and he did. Athletically he lacks. The Rams did pick him up as a UDFA and I could see them keeping him on the practice squad for insurance.

99: DEION BURKS

Deion Burks is a burner. A litte short but well built. Production never came for Burks and it’s confusing as to how. A late 7th rounder taken by Indianapolis Burks actually profiles as a player who can play outside. Given the fact that the Colts have a vacancy there and Downs hasn’t proven he can play outside Burks could well get run right away in Indy’s offense.

99: DESMOND REID

Reid is very fast and shifty. Reid doesn’t have the size to see more than gadget work in the league. If a team can figure out how to deploy him enough to make an impact but not so much that he gets hurt I think he could have a role. Similar to Keaton Mitchell’s role in Baltimore previously.

99: HAYNES KING

King is a very athletic QB who if given extended opportunity could play in the league in my opinion. King showed some ability to play from the pocket and displayed Riley Leonard style athleticism on the run.

99: JAREN KANAK

Kanak is a smaller TE who will likely need to play in the slot. He’s somewhat new to the TE position so it remains to be seen what he could become and how he will be utilized.

99: JOE ROYER

Royer was quite productive at Cincinnati last year. Royer has the size to play inline. Royer figures to be non-productive for fantasy in Cleveland.

99: JOSH CUEVAS

Cuevas is destined to be a blocker at the next level. He’s big and can catch but he doesn’t move that well and landing in Baltimore where they also drafted a move TE I don’t expect Cuevas to be productive for fantasy.

99: KENDRICK LAW

Law is a tough evalulation. Squint and see Rashee Rice. His touches are mostly manufactured and then he’s a violent shifty YAC threat. My fear is this is Malachi Corley 2.0

99: MARLIN KLEIN

Klein goes to Houston to be the heir apparent to Dalton Shultz apparently. Drafted in the 2nd round Klein can play anywhere, he profiles to be an inline blocker but could develop into a passing attack weapon.

99: NATE BOERKIRCHER

Boerkircher was taken in the 2nd round who projects to be an inline blocking TE. He’s a projection to be fantasy relevant. Given the makeup of the team right now I’d look elsewhere.

99: REGGIE VIRGIL

Virgil profiles as the type of WR that will stick around the league for a while. Virgil doesn’t seem to be great at anything but he’s solid. Known for his vertical routes in college his 4.57 40 time lays doubt that he can be successful at the next level. Some refinement will be required for Virgil to have success.

99: RILEY NOWAKOWSKI

Nowakowski profiles as a H BACK, move TE who will likely never be fantasy relevant. Think Kyle Juszczyk. That is what you can expect Nowakowski to be if he can produce as well.

99: TERION STEWART

Stewart is a conundrum. Stewart broke the all time NCAA broken tackle record. The guy is better at breaking tackles than Jeanty and yet he gets no steam and goes undrafted. Stewart will not often breakaway for a huge play but he will make an entire defense look silly as they attempt to get this bowling ball on the ground. He breaks tackles in all kinds of ways too, stiff arm, truck, high step, and lateral cuts. I will never understand why he went undrafted but I think he’s got a chance to hang around on practice squads and eventually land a depth gig. Listed at 5’ 9” I’ve heard his actual height is 5’ 5”. I’ve heard that’s the actual reason he didn’t get drafted. Either way he is a fun watch and I’d want him on my squad.

99: ZAVION THOMAS

Thomas is very fast. He’s an elite returner and weapon with the ball in his hands. He profiles as a limited route tree WR who needs development if he’s going to excel as a receiver at the next level. Thomas did get drafted in the third round however so if you have a taxi spot might be worth the gamble.

RANKINGS

THELATE3RDSRANKINGS

REDRAFT TE DYNASTY TE DYNASTY SF TE
GREG INDYMANA GREG INDYMANA GREG INDYMANA

1. Trey Mcbride 1. Brock Bowers 1. Trey Mcbride 1. Brock Bowers 1. Trey Mcbride 1. Brock Bowers
2. Brock Bowers 2. Trey McBride 2. Brock Bowers 2. Trey McBride 2. Brock Bowers 2. Trey McBride
3. Sam Laporta 3. Orande Gadsden II 3. Colston Loveland 3. Colston Loveland 3. Colston Loveland 3. Colston Loveland
4. Harold Fannin Jr 4. Harold Fannin Jr 4. Harold Fannin Jr 4. Harold Fannin Jr 4. Harold Fannin Jr 4. Harold Fannin Jr
5. Colston Loveland 5. Colston Loveland 5. Tyler Warren 5. Tyler Warren 5. Tyler Warren 5. Tyler Warren
6. Tyler Warren 6. Tyler Warren 6. Kyle Pitts 6. Orande Gadsden 6. Kyle Pitts 6. Orande Gadsden
7. George Kittle 7. Sam LaPorta 7. Tucker Kraft 7. Tucker Kraft 7. Tucker Kraft 7. Tucker Kraft
8. Tucker Kraft 8. Tucker Kraft 8. Eli Sowers 8. Eli Stowers 8. Eli Sowers 8. Eli Stowers
9. Travis Kelce 9. Kyle Pitts 9. Sam Laporta 9. Sam Laporta 9. Sam Laporta 9. Sam Laporta
10. Kyle Pitts 10. Travis Kelce 10. Dalton Kincaid 10. Kyle Pitts 10. Dalton Kincaid 10. Kyle Pitts
11. Jake Ferguson 11. George Kittle 11. Orande Gradson 11. Dalton Kincaid 11. Orande Gradson 11. Dalton Kincaid
12. Mark Andrews 12. Mark Andrews 12. Kenyon Sadiq 12. Justin Joly 12. Kenyon Sadiq 12. Justin Joly
13. Dalton Kincade 13. Dalton Kincaid         13. George Kittle 13. George Kittle 13. George Kittle 13. George Kittle
14. Dallas Goedart 14. Dallas Goedert 14. Jake Ferguson 14. Jake Ferguson 14. Jake Ferguson 14. Jake Ferguson
15. Eli Sowers 15. Eli Stowers 15. Brenton Strange 15. Kenyon Sadiq 15. Brenton Strange 15. Kenyon Sadiq
16. Orande Gadeson II 16. Jake Ferguson 16. Juwan Johnson 16. Brenton Strange 16. Juwan Johnson 16. Brenton Strange
17. Hunter Henry 17. Hunter Henry 17. Isiah Likely 17. Juwan Johnson 17. Isiah Likely 17. Juwan Johnson
18. Juwan Johnson 18. Juwan Johnson 18. AJ Barner 18. Isiah Likely 18. AJ Barner 18. Isiah Likely
19. Brenton Strange 19. Brenton Strange 19. Theo Johnson 19. AJ Barner 19. Theo Johnson 19. AJ Barner
20. Kenyon Sadiq 20. Kenyon Sadiq 20. Oscar Delp 20. Theo Johnson 20. Oscar Delp 20. Theo Johnson
21. Chig Okonkwo 21. Chig Okonkwo 21. Max Klare 21. Gunnar Helm 21. Max Klare 21. Gunnar Helm
22. TJ Hockenson 22. Dalton Schultz 22. Mason Taylor 22. Max Klare 22. Mason Taylor 22. Max Klare
23. Isiah Likely 23. Isiah Likely 23. Justin Joly 23. Eli Raridon 23. Justin Joly 23. Eli Raridon
24. Cade Otten 24. Cade Otton 24. Eli Raridon 24. Mason Taylor 24. Eli Raridon 24. Mason Taylor
25. Dalton Schultz 25. TJ Hockenson 25. Dallas Goedart 25. Dallas Goedert 25. Dallas Goedart 25. Dallas Goedert
26. AJ Barner 26. AJ Barner 26. Mark Andrews 26. Mark Andrews 26. Mark Andrews 26. Mark Andrews
27. David Njoku 27. David Njoku 27. Travis Kelce 27. Travis Kelce 27. Travis Kelce 27. Travis Kelce
28. Colby Parkinson 28. Colby Parkinson 28. TJ Hockenson 28. TJ Hockenson 28. TJ Hockenson 28. TJ Hockenson
29. Evan Engram 29. Evan Engram 29. Hunter Henry 29. Hunter Henry 29. Hunter Henry 29. Hunter Henry
30. Mike Gesicki 30. Mike Gesicki 30. Terrance Ferguson 30. Terrance Ferguson 30. Terrance Ferguson 30. Terrance Ferguson
31. Theo Johnson 31. Theo Johnson 31. Chig Okonkwo 31. Chig Okonkwo 31. Chig Okonkwo 31. Chig Okonkwo
32. Eli Raridon 32. Eli Raridon 32. Dalton Schulta 32. Dalton Schultz 32. Dalton Schulta 32. Dalton Schultz
33. Justin Joly 33. Justin Joly 33. Pat Friermuth 33. Pat Friermuth 33. Pat Friermuth 33. Pat Friermuth
34. Oscar Delp 34. Oscar Delp 34. Eljah Arroyo 34. Eljah Arroyo 34. Eljah Arroyo 34. Eljah Arroyo
35. Sam Rousch 35. Sam Roush 35. Cade Otten 35. Cade Otten 35. Cade Otten 35. Cade Otten
    36. Gunnar Helm 36. Oscar Delp 36. Gunnar Helm 36. Oscar Delp
    37. David Njoku 37. David Njoku 37. David Njoku 37. David Njoku
    38. Micheal Mayer 38. Micheal Mayer 38. Micheal Mayer 38. Micheal Mayer
    39. Colby Parkinson 39. Colby Parkinson 39. Colby Parkinson 39. Colby Parkinson
    40. Evan Engram 40. Evan Engram 40. Evan Engram 40. Evan Engram
    REDRAFT WR DYNASTY WR DYNASTY SF WR
    GREG INDYMANA GREG INDYMANA GREG INDYMANA
36. Puka Nakua 1. Puka Nakua 1. Jamar Chase 1. Jamar Chase 1. Jamar Chase 1. Jamar Chase
37. Jamar Chase 2. Jamar Chase 2. Jaxson Smith-Njiba 2. Jaxson Smith-Njiba 2. Jaxson Smith-Njiba 2. Jaxson Smith-Njiba
38. Jaxson Smith Njxiba 3. Jaxson Smith Njxiba 3. Puka Nukua 3. Puka Nukua 3. Puka Nukua 3. Puka Nukua
39. CeeDee Lamb 4. Amon Ra St Brown 4. Amon Ra St Brown 4. Amon Ra St Brown 4. Amon Ra St Brown 4. Amon Ra St Brown
40. Justin Jefferson 5. Justin Jefferson 5.Justin Jefferson 5.Justin Jefferson 5.Justin Jefferson 5.Justin Jefferson
41. Amon Ra St Brown 6. Malik Nabers 6. Ceedee Lamb 6. Ceedee Lamb 6. Ceedee Lamb 6. Ceedee Lamb
42. George Pickens 7. Drake London 7. Malik Nabers 7. Malik Nabers 7. Malik Nabers 7. Malik Nabers
43. Nico Collins 8. CeeDee Lamb 8. Drake London 8. Drake London 8. Drake London 8. Drake London
44. AJ Brown 9. George Pickens 9. Nico Collins 9. Jordyn Tyson 9. Nico Collins 9. Jordyn Tyson
45. Malik Nabers 10. Nico Collins 10. George Pickens 10. George Pickens 10. George Pickens 10. George Pickens
46. Chris Olave 11. AJ Brown 11. Garrett Wilson 11. Garrett Wilson 11. Garrett Wilson 11. Garrett Wilson
47. Drake London 12. Rashee Rice 12. Jordyn Tyson 12.Carnell Tate 12. Jordyn Tyson 12.Carnell Tate
48. Rashee Rice 13. Chris Olave 13. AJ Brown 13. Nico Collins 13. AJ Brown 13. Nico Collins
49. Tee Higgins 14. Davante Adams 14. Tet Mcmillian 14. Tet McMillan 14. Tet Mcmillian 14. Tet McMillan
50. Davonta Adams 15. Tee Higgins 15. Makai Lemon 15. AJ Brown 15. Makai Lemon 15. AJ Brown
51. Garrett Wilson 16. Zay Flowers 16. Tee Higgins 16. Makai Lemon 16. Tee Higgins 16. Makai Lemon
52. Zay Flowers 17. Garrett Wilson 17. Emeka Egbuka 17. Emeka Egbuka 17. Emeka Egbuka 17. Emeka Egbuka
53. Devonta Smith 18. Devonta Smith 18. Chris Olave 18. Chris Olave 18. Chris Olave 18. Chris Olave
54. Jordyn Tyson 19. Tet Mcmillian 19. Davonta Smith 19. Tee Higgins 19. Davonta Smith 19. Tee Higgins
55. Makai Lemon 20. Emeka Egbuka 20. Luther Burden III 20. Davonta Smith 20. Luther Burden III 20. Davonta Smith
56. Tet Mcmillian 21. Mike Evans  21. Rashee Rice 21. Luther Burden III 21. Rashee Rice 21. Luther Burden III
57. Jameson Williams 22. Jaylen Waddle 22. KC Conception 22. Rashee Rice 22. KC Conception 22. Rashee Rice
58. Ladd Mcconkey 23. Jordyn Tyson 23. Jameson Williams 23. KC Conception 23. Jameson Williams 23. KC Conception
59. Emeka Egbuka 24. Makai Lemon 24. Rome Odunze 24. Rome Odunze 24. Rome Odunze 24. Rome Odunze
60. Christian Watson 25. Carnell Tate 25. Ladd Mcconkey 25. Ladd McConkey 25. Ladd Mcconkey 25. Ladd McConkey
61. Carnell Tate 26. Jameson Williams 25. Zay Flowers 26. Jameson Williams 25. Zay Flowers 26. Jameson Williams
62. KC Conception 27. Christian Watson 26. Marvin Harrison Jr. 27. Zay Flowers 26. Marvin Harrison Jr. 27. Zay Flowers
63. Terry Mclaurin 28. Ladd Mcconkey 27. Brian Thomas Jr 28. Marvin Harrison Jr. 27. Brian Thomas Jr 28. Marvin Harrison Jr.
64. Mike Evans  29. Rome Odunze 28. Jaylen Waddle 29. Brian Thomas Jr 28. Jaylen Waddle 29. Brian Thomas Jr
65. Rome Odunze 30. Brian Thomas Jr 29. Micheal Wilson 30. Jaylen Waddle 29. Micheal Wilson 30. Jaylen Waddle
66. Jaylen Waddle 31. KC Conception 30. Alec Pierce 31. Michael Wilson 30. Alec Pierce 31. Michael Wilson
67. DK Metvalf 32. Terry Mclaurin 31. DJ Moore 32. Alec Pierce 31. DJ Moore 32. Alec Pierce
68. Dj Moore 33. Dj Moore 32. Omar Cooper Jr 33. DJ Moore 32. Omar Cooper Jr 33. DJ Moore
69. Parker Washington 34. Marvin Harrison Jr 33. Davonte Adams 34. Jalen Coker 33. Davonte Adams 34. Jalen Coker
70. Brian Thomas Jr 35. Alec Pierce 34. Wandale Robinson 35. Davante Adams 34. Wandale Robinson 35. Davante Adams
71. Cortland Sutton 36. Parker Washington 35. Christian Watson 36. Wandale Robinson 35. Christian Watson 36. Wandale Robinson
72. Jakobi Meyers 37. Jakobi Meyers 36. Terry Mcclaurin 37. Christian Watson 36. Terry Mcclaurin 37. Christian Watson
73. Marvin Harrison Jr 38. Micheal Wilson 37. Ricky Pearsoll 38. Terry Mcclaurin 37. Ricky Pearsoll 38. Terry Mcclaurin
74. Alec Pierce 39. Wandale Robinson 38. Jordan Addison 39. Omar Cooper Jr. 38. Jordan Addison 39. Omar Cooper Jr.
75. Micheal Pittman Jr 40. Chris Godwin 39. DK Metcalf 40. Jordan Addison 39. DK Metcalf 40. Jordan Addison
76. Jordan Addison 41. Matthew Golden 40. Denzel Boston 41. DK Metcalf 40. Denzel Boston 41. DK Metcalf
77. Stephon Diggs 42. Josh Downs 41. Germie Bernard 42. Denzel Boston 41. Germie Bernard 42. Denzel Boston
    43.Ricky Pearsoll 43. DK Metcalf 42. Jalen Coker 43. Ricky Pearsall 42. Jalen Coker 43. Ricky Pearsall
78. Chris Godwin 44. Cortland Sutton 43. Chris Brazzell II 44. Chris Bell 43. Chris Brazzell II 44. Chris Bell
79. Micheal Wilson 45. Jordan Addison 44. Zachariah Branch 45. Chris Brazzell II 44. Zachariah Branch 45. Chris Brazzell II
80. Josh Downs 46. Micheal Pittman Jr 45. Micheal Pittman Jr 46. Matthew Golden 45. Micheal Pittman Jr 46. Matthew Golden
81. Khalil Shakir 47. Stephon Diggs 46. Mike Evans 47. Micheal Pittman Jr 46. Mike Evans 47. Micheal Pittman Jr
82. Wandale Robinson 48.Ricky Pearsall 47. Cortland Sutton 48. Mike Evans 47. Cortland Sutton 48. Mike Evans
83. Matthew Golden 49. Travis Hunter 48. Travis Hunter 49. Courtland Sutton 48. Travis Hunter 49. Courtland Sutton
84. Omar Cooper Jr 50. Omar Cooper Jr. 49. Chris Bell 50. Travis Hunter 49. Chris Bell 50. Travis Hunter
    50. Matthew Golden 51. Antonio Williams 50. Matthew Golden 51. Antonio Williams
    51. Jakobi Lane 52. De’Zhaun Stribling 51. Jakobi Lane 52. De’Zhaun Stribling
    52. Romeo Doubs 53. Jakobi Lane 52. Romeo Doubs 53. Jakobi Lane
    53. Antonio Williams 54. Romeo Doubs 53. Antonio Williams 54. Romeo Doubs
    54. Ze’shaun Stribling 55. Germie Bernard 54. Ze’shaun Stribling 55. Germie Bernard
    55. Jayden Higgens 56. Jayden Higgins 55. Jayden Higgens 56. Jayden Higgins
    56. Ted Hurst 57. Elijah Sarratt 56. Ted Hurst 57. Elijah Sarratt
    57. Khalil Shakir 58. Ted Hurst 57. Khalil Shakir 58. Ted Hurst
    58. Elijah Sarratt 59. Khalil Shakir 58. Elijah Sarratt 59. Khalil Shakir
    59. Stephon Diggs 60. Parker Washington 59. Stephon Diggs 60. Parker Washington
    60. Malachi Fields 61. Stephon Diggs 60. Malachi Fields 61. Stephon Diggs
    61. Marvin Mims Jr 62. Jalen McMillan 61. Marvin Mims Jr 62. Jalen McMillan
    62. Jahan Dotson 63. Quentin Johnston 62. Jahan Dotson 63. Quentin Johnston
    63. Jerry Juedy 64. Jakobi Meyers 63. Jerry Juedy 64. Jakobi Meyers
    64. Parker Washington 65. Jerry Juedy 64. Parker Washington 65. Jerry Juedy
    65. Jakobi Meyers 66. Josh Downs 65. Jakobi Meyers 66. Josh Downs
    66. Josh Downs 67. Isaac TeSlaa 66. Josh Downs 67. Isaac TeSlaa
    67. Chris Godwin 68. Chris Godwin 67. Chris Godwin 68. Chris Godwin
    68. Jayden Reed 69. Jayden Reed 68. Jayden Reed 69. Jayden Reed
    69. Tre Harris 70. Bryce Lance 69. Tre Harris 70. Bryce Lance
    70. Quenton Johnston 71. Tre Harris 70. Quenton Johnston 71. Tre Harris
    71. Jalen Mcmillian 72. Pat Bryant 71. Jalen Mcmillian 72. Pat Bryant
    72. Rashid Shaheed 73. Skyler Bell 72. Rashid Shaheed 73. Skyler Bell
    73. Troy Franklin 74. Rashid Shaheed 73. Troy Franklin 74. Rashid Shaheed
    74, Jaylin Noel 75. Troy Franklin 74, Jaylin Noel 75. Troy Franklin
    75. Elic Ayomanor 76, Jaylin Noel 75. Elic Ayomanor 76, Jaylin Noel
    76. Tre Tucker 77. Elic Ayomanor 76. Tre Tucker 77. Elic Ayomanor
    77. Tory Horton 78. Tre Tucker 77. Tory Horton 78. Tre Tucker
    78. Bryce Lance 79. Tory Horton 78. Bryce Lance 79. Tory Horton
    79. Darnell Mooney 80. Zachariah Branch 79. Darnell Mooney 80. Zachariah Branch
    80. Isaac TeSlaa 81. Darnell Mooney 80. Isaac TeSlaa 81. Darnell Mooney
    REDRAFT RB DYNASTY RB DYNASTY SF RB
    GREG INDYMANA GREG INDYMANA GREG INDYMANA
85. Christian Mccaffery 1. Bijan Robinson 1. Bijan Robinson 1. Bijan Robinson 1. Bijan Robinson 1. Bijan Robinson
86. Bijan Robinson 2. Jahmyr Gibbs 2. Jahmyr Gibbs 2. Jahmyr Gibbs 2. Jahmyr Gibbs 2. Jahmyr Gibbs
87. Jahmyr Gibbs 3. Christian Mccaffery 3. De’von Achane 3. De’von Achane 3. De’von Achane 3. De’von Achane
88. Saquan Barkley 4. Jonathon Taylor 4. Omarion Hampton 4. Jeramiah Love 4. Omarion Hampton 4. Jeramiah Love
89. Jonathon Taylor 5. De’veon Achane 5. Ashton Jeanty 5. Ashton Jeanty 5. Ashton Jeanty 5. Ashton Jeanty
90. De’veon Achane 6. James Cook 6. James Cook 6. Omarion Hampton 6. James Cook 6. Omarion Hampton
91. James Cook 7. Saquan Barkley 7. Jonathon Taylor 7. Jonathon Taylor 7. Jonathon Taylor 7. Jonathon Taylor
92. Chase Brown 8. Chase Brown 8. Jeramiah Love 8. James Cook 8. Jeramiah Love 8. James Cook
93. Derrick Henry 9. Derrick Henry 9. Trevyon Henderson 9. Quinshon Judkins 9. Trevyon Henderson 9. Quinshon Judkins
94. Ashton Jeanty 10. Ashton Jeanty 10. Breece Hall 10. Breece Hall 10. Breece Hall 10. Breece Hall
95. Omarion Hampton 11. Omarion Hampton 11. Quinshon Judkins 11. Trevyon Henderson 11. Quinshon Judkins 11. Trevyon Henderson
96. Josh Jacobs 12. Breece Hall 12. CMC 12. CMC 12. CMC 12. CMC
97. Jerimiah Love 13. Kyren Williams 13. Chase Brown 13. Saquan Barkley 13. Chase Brown 13. Saquan Barkley
98. Breece Hall 14. Jerimiah Love 14. Saquan Barkley 14. Ken Walker 14. Saquan Barkley 14. Ken Walker
99. Treveon Henderson 15. Josh Jacobs 15. Josh Jacobs 15. Chase Brown 15. Josh Jacobs 15. Chase Brown
100. Ken Walker 16. Ken Walker 16. Ken Walker 16. Kyren Williams 16. Ken Walker 16. Kyren Williams
101. Kyren Williams 17. Quinshon Judkins 17. Kyren Williams 17. Cam Skattebo 17. Kyren Williams 17. Cam Skattebo
102. Quinshon Judkins 18. Treveon Henderson 18. Cam Skattebo 18. Derrick Henry 18. Cam Skattebo 18. Derrick Henry
     18. Cam Skattebo 19. Cam Skattebo 19. Derrick Henry 19. Josh Jacobs 19. Derrick Henry 19. Josh Jacobs
     19. Travis Etienne 20. Travis Etienne 20. Javonte Williams 20. Bucky Irving 20. Javonte Williams 20. Bucky Irving
103. Javonte Williams 21. Javonte Williams 21. Jadarian Price 21. Javonte Williams 21. Jadarian Price 21. Javonte Williams
104. De’andre Swift 22. De’andre Swift 22. Zach Charb 22. Jadarian Price 22. Zach Charb 22. Jadarian Price
105. David Montgomery 23. Bucky Irving  23. Rj Harvey 23. Zach Charb 23. Rj Harvey 23. Zach Charb
106. Zach Charbonnet 24. David Montgomery 24. Travis Etienne 24. Travis Etienne 24. Travis Etienne 24. Travis Etienne
107. Jadarian Price 25. Jadarian Price 25. Bhaysun Tuten 25. Bhaysun Tuten 25. Bhaysun Tuten 25. Bhaysun Tuten
108. RJ Harvey 26. Bhaysun Tuten 26. De’andre Swift 26. Rj Harvey 26. De’andre Swift 26. Rj Harvey
109. Jonah Coleman 27. JK Dobbins 27. Bucky Irving 27. Jonah Coleman 27. Bucky Irving 27. Jonah Coleman
110. Bhaysun Tuten 28. RJ Harvey 28. Chubba Hubbard 28. De’andre Swift 28. Chubba Hubbard 28. De’andre Swift
     28. Bucky Irving  29. Rico Dowdle 29. Rhamandre Stevenson 29. Rhamandre Stevenson 29. Rhamandre Stevenson 29. Rhamandre Stevenson
111. Rhamandre Stevenson 30. Jaylen Warren 30. Jaylen Warren 30. David Montogomery 30. Jaylen Warren 30. David Montogomery
112. JK Dobbins 31. Rhamandre Stevenson 31. Rico Dowdle 31. Rico Dowdle 31. Rico Dowdle 31. Rico Dowdle
113. Rico Dowdle 32. Kyle Monangai 32. Blake Corum 32. Jaylen Warren 32. Blake Corum 32. Jaylen Warren
114. Jaylen Warren 33. Blake Corum 33. David Montogomery 33. Blake Corum 33. David Montogomery 33. Blake Corum
115. Aaron Jones 34. Emmett Johnson 34. Woody Marks 34. Chubba Hubbard 34. Woody Marks 34. Chubba Hubbard
116. Demond Clabourne 35. Tyler Allgier 35. Jonah Coleman 35. Kyle Monongai 35. Jonah Coleman 35. Kyle Monongai
117. Tony Pollard 36. Tony Pollard 36. Nick Singleton 36. Jacory Crowski-Merritt 36. Nick Singleton 36. Jacory Crowski-Merritt
118. Nick Singleton 37. Chubba Hubbard 37. Emmitt Johnson 37, Kaytron Allen 37. Emmitt Johnson 37, Kaytron Allen
119. Woody Marks 38. Rachaad White 38, Kaytron Allen 38. JK Dobbins 38, Kaytron Allen 38. JK Dobbins
     38. Chubba Hubbard 39. Tyrone Tracy Jr 39. Mike Washington Jr 39. Jonathon Brooks 39. Mike Washington Jr 39. Jonathon Brooks
120. Rachaad White 40. Woody Marks 40. Trey Benson 40. Tyler Allgier 40. Trey Benson 40. Tyler Allgier
121. Kyle Monangai 41. Jacory Croskey-Merritt 41. Adam Randell 41. Eli Heidenreich 41. Adam Randell 41. Eli Heidenreich
122. Blake Corum 42. Kaytron Allen 42. Demond Claibourne 42. Tyrone Tracy Jr 42. Demond Claibourne 42. Tyrone Tracy Jr
123. Tyrone Tracy Jr 43. Demond Clabourne 43. Devin Neal 43. Braelon Allen 43. Devin Neal 43. Braelon Allen
124. Kaytron Allen 44. Aaron Jones 44. Eli Heidenreich 44. Keaton Mitchell 44. Eli Heidenreich 44. Keaton Mitchell
125. Tyler Allgier 45. Nick Singleton 45. JK Dobbins 45. Isiah Pacheco 45. JK Dobbins 45. Isiah Pacheco
126. Mike Washington Jr 46. Jaylen Wright 46. Kyle Monongai 46. Emmitt Johnson 46. Kyle Monongai 46. Emmitt Johnson
127. Emmett Johnson 47. Ollie Gordon II 47. Jordan Mason 47. Adam Randell 47. Jordan Mason 47. Adam Randell
128. LeQuint Allen 48. Mike Washington Jr 48. Jacory Crowski-Merritt 48. Mike Washington Jr 48. Jacory Crowski-Merritt 48. Mike Washington Jr
129. Jaylen Wright 49. Jonah Coleman 49. Braelon Allen 49. Jordan Mason 49. Braelon Allen 49. Jordan Mason
130. Ollie Gordon II 50. LeQuint Allen 50. Tyrone Tracy Jr 50. Kenneth Gainwell 50. Tyrone Tracy Jr 50. Kenneth Gainwell
131. Adam Randall 51. Zach Charbonnet 51. Jonathon Brooks 51. Jaylen Wright 51. Jonathon Brooks 51. Jaylen Wright
     52. Isiah Pacheco 52. Ollie Gordon II 52. Isiah Pacheco 52. Ollie Gordon II
     53. Kenneth Gainwell 53. Woody Marks 53. Kenneth Gainwell 53. Woody Marks
     54. Chris Rodriguez 54. Nick Singleton 54. Chris Rodriguez 54. Nick Singleton
     55. Keaton Mitchell 55. Kaleb Johnson 55. Keaton Mitchell 55. Kaleb Johnson
     56. Tyler Allgier 56. Jordon James 56. Tyler Allgier 56. Jordon James
     57. Brian Robinson Jr 57. Kealon Black 57. Brian Robinson Jr 57. Kealon Black
     58. Jaylen Wright 58. Chris Rodriguez 58. Jaylen Wright 58. Chris Rodriguez
     59. Aaron Jones 59. Sean Tucker 59. Aaron Jones 59. Sean Tucker
     60. Jaydon Blue 60. Demond Claibourne 60. Jaydon Blue 60. Demond Claibourne
     61. Ollie Gordon II 61. Trey Benson 61. Ollie Gordon II 61. Trey Benson
     62. Tank Bixby 62. Devin Neal 62. Tank Bixby 62. Devin Neal
     63. Lequint Allen 63. Brian Robinson Jr 63. Lequint Allen 63. Brian Robinson Jr
     64. Jordon James 64. James Connor 64. Jordon James 64. James Connor
     65. Emanuel Wilson 65. Seth McGowan 65. Emanuel Wilson 65. Seth McGowan
     66. Will Shipley 66. Lequint Allen 66. Will Shipley 66. Lequint Allen
     67. Kealon Black 67. Alvin Kamara 67. Kealon Black 67. Alvin Kamara
     68. Alvin Kamara 68. Kendre Miller 68. Alvin Kamara 68. Kendre Miller
     69. Kendre Miller 69. Emanuel Wilson 69. Kendre Miller 69. Emanuel Wilson
     70. Justice Hil 70. Tank Bixby 70. Justice Hil 70. Tank Bixby
     71. Trevor Etienne 71. Justice Hil 71. Trevor Etienne 71. Justice Hil
     72. Sean Tucker 72. Aaron Jones 72. Sean Tucker 72. Aaron Jones
     73. Devin Singletary 73. Trevor Etienne 73. Devin Singletary 73. Trevor Etienne
     74. Kaleb Johnson 74. Will Shipley 74. Kaleb Johnson 74. Will Shipley
     75. James Connor 75. Jaydon Blue 75. James Connor 75. Jaydon Blue
     REDRAFT QB DYNASTY QB DYNASTY SF QB
     GREG INDYMANA GREG INDYMANA GREG INDYMANA
     Josh Allen Josh Allen Josh Allen Josh Allen Josh Allen Josh Allen
     Lamar Jackson Drake Maye Lamar Jackson Drake Maye Lamar Jackson Drake Maye
     Drake Maye Jackson Dart Drake Maye Jackson Dart Drake Maye Jackson Dart
     Jayden Daniels Lamar Jackson Jayden Daniels Lamar Jackson Jayden Daniels Lamar Jackson
     Jalen Hurts Jalen Hurts Jalen Hurts Jayden Daniels Jalen Hurts Jayden Daniels
     Jackson Dart Caleb Williams Jackson Dart Caleb Williams Patrick Mahomes Caleb Williams
     Patrick Mahomes Joe Burrow Patrick Mahomes Trevor Lawrence Joe Burrow Trevor Lawrence
     Joe Burrow Patrick Mahomes Joe Burrow Joe Burrow Jackson Dart Joe Burrow
     Caleb Williams Jayden Daniels Caleb Williams Patrick Mahomes Caleb Williams Patrick Mahomes
     Trevor Lawrence Trevor Lawrence Trevor Lawrence Bo Nix Trevor Lawrence Bo Nix
     Brock Purdy Brock Purdy Brock Purdy Justin Herbert Brock Purdy Justin Herbert
     Bo Nix Bo Nix Bo Nix Jalen Hurts Bo Nix Jalen Hurts
     Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Brock Purdy Matthew Stafford Brock Purdy
     Matthew Stafford Justin Herbert Matthew Stafford Fernando Mendoza Jordan Love Fernando Mendoza
     Jordan Love Matthew Stafford Jordan Love Baker Mayfield Justin Herbert Baker Mayfield
     Justin Herbert Tyler Shough Justin Herbert Tyler Shough Kyler Murray Tyler Shough
     Tyler Shough Dak Prescott Tyler Shough Dak Prescott Tyler Shough Dak Prescott
     Bryce Young Malik Willis Bryce Young Jordan Love Bryce Young Jordan Love
     Fernando Mendoza Jordan Love Fernando Mendoza Cam Ward Fernando Mendoza Cam Ward
     Baker Mayfield Baker Mayfield Baker Mayfield CJ Stroud Baker Mayfield CJ Stroud
     CJ Stroud Jared Goff CJ Stroud Jared Goff CJ Stroud Jared Goff
     Dak Prescott Daniel Jones Dak Prescott Sam Darnold Dak Prescott Sam Darnold
     Cam Ward Sam Darnold Cam Ward Daniel Jones Cam Ward Daniel Jones
     Daniel Jones CJ Stroud Daniel Jones Malik Willis Daniel Jones Malik Willis
     Michael Penix Jr. Cam Ward Michael Penix Jr. Kyler Murray Michael Penix Jr. Kyler Murray
     J.J. McCarthy Bryce Young J.J. McCarthy Matthew Stafford J.J. McCarthy Matthew Stafford
     Tua Tagovailoa Geno Smith Tua Tagovailoa Bryce Young Tua Tagovailoa Bryce Young
     Shedeur Sanders Aaron Rodgers Shedeur Sanders Tua Tagovailoa Geno Smith Tua Tagovailoa
     Geno Smith Jacoby Brissett Geno Smith Michael Penix Jr. Kirk Cousins Michael Penix Jr.
     Kirk Cousins Deshaun Watson Kirk Cousins Kirk Cousins Aaron Rodgers Kirk Cousins
     Aaron Rodgers Kirk Cousins Aaron Rodgers Aaron Rodgers Justin Fields Aaron Rodgers
     Justin Fields Fernando Mendoza Justin Fields Geno Smith Will Levis Geno Smith
     Will Levis Tua Tagovailoa Will Levis Jacoby Brissett Shedeur Sanders Jacoby Brissett
     Quinn Ewers Michael Penix Jr. Quinn Ewers Deshaun Watson Quinn Ewers Deshaun Watson
     Carson Beck Anthony Richardson Carson Beck Shedeur Sanders Carson Beck Shedeur Sanders
     Jalen Milroe Shedeur Sanders Jalen Milroe J.J. McCarthy Jalen Milroe J.J. McCarthy
     Nico Iamaleava Carson Beck Nico Iamaleava Jalen Milroe Nico Iamaleava Jalen Milroe
     Spencer Rattler J.J. McCarthy Spencer Rattler Anthony Richardson Spencer Rattler Anthony Richardson
     Sam Howell Justin Fields Sam Howell Will Levis Sam Howell Will Levis
     Aidan O’Connell Davis Mills Aidan O’Connell Justin Fields Aidan O’Connell Justin Fields
     Desmond Ridder Mac Jones Desmond Ridder Cole Payton Desmond Ridder Cole Payton
     Anthony Richardson Will Levis Anthony Richardson Taylen Green Anthony Richardson Taylen Green
     Joe Milton Joe Milton
     Carson Beck Carson Beck
     Quinn Ewers Quinn Ewers
     Davis Mills Davis Mills
     Mac Jones Mac Jones

TLT26ROOKYN

    B   G   T

FERNANDO MENDOZA QB Yes No No
TY SIMPSON QB No No No
GARRETT NUSSMEIER QB No No No
CADE KLUBNIK QB Yes No No
CARSON BECK QB No No No
DREW ALLAR QB No No No
JALON DANIELS QB No No Yes
DIEGO PAVIA QB No No No
ATHAN KALIAKMANIS QB No No No
LUKE ALTMYER QB No No No
SAWYER ROBERTSON QB Yes No No
TAYLEN GREEN QB Yes No No
TOMMY CASTELLANOS QB No No No
MILLER MOSS QB No No No
JAKE RETZLAFF QB No No No
KYRON DRONES QB No No No
COLE PAYTON QB Yes No No
HAYNES KING QB Yes No Yes
JOE FAGNANO QB No No No
MARK GRONOWSKI QB No No No
JOEY AGUILAR QB Yes No No
BEHREN MORTON QB No No No
JEREMIYAH LOVE RB Yes Yes Yes
JONAH COLEMAN RB Yes Yes No
JADARIAN PRICE RB Yes Yes No
NICK SINGLETON RB No Yes No
DEMOND CLAIBORNE RB No Yes Yes
LE’VEON MOSS RB No No No
KAYTRON ALLEN RB Yes No Yes
JAMARION MILLER RB No No No
ROB HENRY JR RB No No No
BARIKA KPEENU RB No No No
MIKE WASHINGTON JR RB No Yes Yes
EMMETT JOHNSON RB No Yes No
DESMOND REID RB No Yes No
J’MARI TAYLOR RB No Yes No
TERION STEWART RB Yes No No
JAYDN OTT RB Yes No No
ROMAN HEMBY RB No No No
NOAH WHITTINGTON RB No No Yes
DEAN CONNORS RB No No Yes
JAMAL HAYNES RB No No No
KENTREL BULLOCK RB No No No
SETH MCGOWAN RB Yes No No
ADAM RANDALL RB Yes Yes Yes
RAHSUL FAISON RB No No No
KAELON BLACK RB Yes No No
CHIP TRAYANUM RB No No No
CJ DONALDSON RB No No Yes
ELI HEIDENREICH RB Yes Yes Yes
KENYON SADIQ TE No No No
ELI STOWERS TE Yes Yes Yes
MAX KLARE TE Yes No Yes
MARLIN KLEIN TE No Yes No
JACK ENDRIES TE Yes No No
OSCAR DELP TE No Yes Yes
LAKE MCREE TE No No No
MICHAEL TRIGG TE Yes Yes Yes
TANNER KOZIOL TE Yes No No
JUSTIN JOLY TE Yes No Yes
JOSHUA CUEVAS TE No No No
JOE ROYER TE Yes No No
MILES KITSELMAN TE No No No
JOHN MICHAEL GYLLENBORG TE Yes No Yes
DAE’QUAN WRIGHT TE No No No
JAREN KANAK TE No No No
RJ MARYLAND TE No No No
JACK VELLING TE No No No
CHAMON METAYER TE No No No
ROHAN JONES TE No No No
ELI RARIDON TE Yes Yes Yes
CARSEN RYAN TE No No No
SAM ROUSH TE No No No
DAN VILLARI TE No No No
NATE BOERKIRCHER TE No No No
DJ ROGERS TE No No No
DALLEN BENTLEY TE Yes No Yes
TRAORE SEYDOU TE No No No
BAUER SHARP TE No No No
RILEY NOWAKOWSKI TE No No No
MATTHEW HIBNER TE Yes No Yes
WILL KACMAREK TE No No No
KHALIL DINKINS TE No No No
JORDYN TYSON WR Yes Yes Yes
DENZEL BOSTON WR Yes Yes Yes
MAKAI LEMON WR Yes Yes Yes
CARNELL TATE WR Yes No No
JA’KOBI LANE WR No Yes Yes
CHRIS BELL WR Yes Yes No
ANTONIO WILLIAMS WR Yes No Yes
KC CONCEPCION WR Yes Yes Yes
GERMIE BERNARD WR No Yes Yes
ELIJAH SARRATT WR Yes Yes No
CHRIS BRAZZELL II WR No No No
BRYCE LANCE WR Yes No No
MALACHI FIELDS WR Yes No No
DEION BURKS WR Yes No No
CJ DANIELS WR No No No
JOSH CAMERON WR No No No
OMAR COOPER JR WR Yes Yes Yes
SYLER BELL WR Yes No No
CYRUS ALLEN WR Yes No No
ZACHARIAH BRANCH WR Yes Yes Yes
MALIK BENSON WR No No No
AARON ANDERSON WR No No No
KEVIN COLEMAN JR. WR Yes No No
DANE KEY WR No No No
ERIC RIVERS WR No No No
CHASE ROBERTS WR No No No
ZAVION THOMAS WR No No No
BRENEN THOMPSON WR Yes No Yes
NOAH THOMAS WR No No No
MICHAEL STURDIVANT WR Yes No No
ERIC MCALISTER WR Yes No No
DE’ZHAUN STRIBLING WR Yes No Yes
TREBOR PENA WR No No No
JOHNTAY COOK WR No No No
HANK BEATTY WR No No No
MICHAEL WORTHAM WR No No No
TED HURST WR Yes No No
CALEB DOUGLAS WR No No Yes
ROMELLO BRINSON WR No No No
CAULLIN LACY WR No No No
BARION BROWN WR No No No
REGGIE VIRGIL WR Yes No No
VINNY ANTHONY II WR No No No
HARRISON WALLACE III WR No No No
LEWIS BOND WR No No No
JORDAN HUDSON WR No No No
CHRIS HILTON JR. WR No No No
KENDRICK LAW WR No No No
JEFF CALDWELL WR No No No
JALEN WALTHALL WR No No No
KADEN WETJEN WR No No No
EMMANUEL HENDERSON JR WR No No No
COLBIE YOUNG WR No No No
DILLON BELL WR No No No
TYREN MONTGOMERY WR Yes No No

BUYING INTO NARRATIVES

Buying into narratives for value gains

2nd year breakouts

There are several rookies every season who never seem to make a mark on their team despite their draft capital. Some are head scratching and some seem to not have it. Most of the time there are extenuating circumstances surrounding their lack of production that can be explained away. It’s up to you to decide if you buy the narrative or not.

Let’s take a look at some of the players that fall in this category to begin the 2026 season.

Jack Bech LV/WR

Bech is a 23 year old WR who was a 2nd round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Bech made essentially no contributions in 2025 but let’s pick apart some details to see what led to his poor showing. Bech did not receive more than 24 percent of the snaps in 6 of the 14 games he played. Four of those games came before he ever reached more than 24 percent of snaps. In the games in which he received more than 24 percent of snaps he was only above 56 percent 5 times. In those 5 showings he averaged 3 targets and 2.4 catches. We are aware that Pete Carrol typically doesn’t feature rookies and that seemed to hold true with Bech’s rookie season. What can we extrapolate from these statistics? Bech wasn’t used or targeted. When he received opportunities he made the most of them but they were few and far between and on a poor offense. Bech is a prime candidate for a mulligan season. Currently being drafted in the late 19th round as WR67 Bech is an optimum swing to make for an unbelievable value gain in 2026. Any amount of usage should he be able to earn it will result in a significant value gain for your squad.

Matthew Golden GB/WR

Golden is a 22 year old WR who was drafted in the 1st round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Golden’s rookie season was a struggle mostly disappointing for fantasy managers. Picking through the statistics let’s see if he’s worth a swing in your startup. Golden played in 7 games in which he exceeded 50% snap share. In those 7 games Golden averaged 3.85 targets and 2.85 catches. In those 7 games he averaged 7.05 PPR points. By in large we can all easily understand why Golden’s deployment was so sporadic. The Green Bay WR room in 2025 was LOADED. There were 6 pass catchers getting regular rotation not counting and work for the RB. Frankly it’s not hard to see why a rookie trying to find his way would struggle to in that landscape. The narrative that he is a bust is simply premature. Green Bay has revamped their WR room clearing the way for Golden to make his mark. Currently being drafted in the early 11th round as WR48 Golden is another no brainer swing. With a modest improvement in his efficiency and usage Golden stands to be an every week starter in your flex at minimum. At his price a pick of Golden could very well be a titanic value win for your squad.

Jalen Royals KC/WR

Royals is a 23 year old WR drafted by KC in the 4th round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Royals is a more difficult projection but bear with me. Royals saw mostly special teams deployment until week 18 and in that game with Chris Oladokun at the helm he did mostly nothing. Andy Reid typically does not feature his rookies on offense. That held true with Royals but, he was thrust into a fully stocked WR room filled with veterans that were brought in to insure they were in the right place at the right time to help aid Mahomes and not to contribute as pass catchers. Consequently, Royals was basically in training. Royals a Utah State product had a stripped down route tree playing at a small school against lesser competition. It’s makes total sense that Royals got the redshirt season but now having shed all of the worthless WR the likes of Hollywood Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster, there is light at the end of the tunnel. The WR room now features Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Tyquan Thornton. Tyquan is a deep threat with a limited route tree, Worthy has proven to be an underneath guy working out of the slot, and Rashee has legal troubles by the day. The opportunity is there for a guy like Royals to make and take a role. In a lot of ways Royals plays like Rice and I believe his selection was no mistake. No one is more aware of the volatility of the longevity of Rice than KC is. They simply cannot let his off the field issues cost them a significant run in the playoffs. Royals is currently drafted in the 24th round of startup drafts and he is a player who simply has a pathway to be a massive value gain for your team.

Buying into narratives for value gains

Injury Prone

Sometimes a very talented player gets a heaping helping of Murphy’s Law.

Those players carry some narrative baggage that you can use to either swing for a large value when or avoid completely. While sometimes there are situations where you should not take the swing, these are unique opportunities for your dynasty team to get a value win and if you don’t take the swing you can’t win. If your leaguemates are apprehensive all the better driving the price down and the potential win even bigger.

Let’s take a look at some of the players that fall in this category to begin the 2026 season.

Jonathon Brooks CAR/RB

Brooks is only 22 years old. He’s had a horrific start to his NFL career as he tore the same ACL to begin consecutive years. It has to be in the back of your mind that he could indeed tear it again but what are the odds really? According to Sage Journals a player who has torn their ACL has a 25% chance of reinjury and are 4.7 times more likely compared to someone who has never torn their ACL. So to say there is risk would be an understatement however Brooks is currently being drafted in the late 13th round as RB43. Assume a 75% chance of a no re-injury, what if Brooks is an RB2 in 2026? What could we get for an RB24 (7.01) or better? Players in that range Etienne, DeVonta Smith, Skattebo, and Pitts just to name a few. I think we’d all be carrying a wad of scratchers if the odds were 75% of course that’s only one part of the equation. Is he still good? Worth the risk in my book at these prices.

Marshawn Lloyd GB/RB

Lloyd is 25 years old now. He’s also had a horrific start to his NFL career as he’s dealt with a series of hamstring strains and appendicitis. In this case while there is re-injury risk its soft tissue injuries. He has not had structural damage leading to surgery. The best doctors and trainers in the world work for these teams and you have to believe there is light at the end of the tunnel for Lloyd. Now given the uncertainty of the situation with Josh Jacobs legal problems, some signs of decline over the last couple of seasons, and the lack of clarity on who his backup will be his potential could be immense and yet he’s being drafted outside of the top 250 players. Feels like a no brainer to me this is a swing for the fences that will frankly cost you very little. Should he even just be a backup with a minor share of the backfield you can still cash in given where he is going in dynasty startups.

J.K. Dobbins DEN/RB

Dobbins is 27 now. He may be on the downslope of the backside of his career but then again he’s had a plethora of different injuries which have caused him to miss significant time. Obviously Dobbins is a different case. While Lloyd and Brooks have had injury prevent a launch into their careers, Dobbins has had injury get in the way after his launch. Dobbins doesn’t present the same upside win as the other two but he does perform when he’s on the field. Over the last two seasons he has produced when his number is called. 2024 saw him finish RB 24 while scoring 191.8 PPR fantasy points over 13 games and 2025 saw him finish RB43 while scoring 115.9 PPR fantasy points over 10 games. 13.37 PPR points per game is the type of production you want on your bench or perhaps even your flex. Dobbins is currently going late in the 12th round as the 35th RB off the board. With his floor when on the field this is the type of gamble you take not to sell but to start when healthy.

Buying into narratives for value gains

Mobile Quarterback / Age Correlation

It has long been understood that drafting a mobile quarterback is a cheat code in fantasy football and how good the code is depends on your league’s scoring settings. When we think about who we deem mobile do we ever consider age? Feels like more of a yes/no question. I think it’s time we look at this a bit deeper. There has to come a time on a bell curve wherein a prolific pocket passer is the more desirable option than the aging mobile quarterback.

Let’s take a look at some of the players that fall in this category to begin the 2026 season and see if we can hone in on when the cheat code stops working.

Josh Allen BUF/QB

Allen is a 30 year old QB who is and has always been a dual threat. Allen was not as much of a weapon with his arm in his first two seasons but beginning year 3 that changed for good. Allen has averaged 592 yards per season rushing over the course of his 8 year career however his peak seasons of over 750 yards came in years 4 & 5. His rushing attempts have reduced slightly over the last three seasons but his rushing touchdowns have increased significantly from the mean over the last three seasons. Over his first 5 seasons Allen averaged 7.6 rushing TD’s per season but over the last 3 seasons 13.7. This data would suggest that many of his carries are around the goal line and less in the middle of the field. In reviewing Allen’s passing output over the course of his career there is a correlation that follows the change in rushing usage. Omitting his first two seasons as they were poor in passing metrics but reviewing only his years 3-5 Allen averaged 4,393 passing yards per season and 36 passing touchdowns. Over the last three seasons Allen’s passing yards have declined to 3,699 per season and the passing touchdowns to 27. In summation at 30 years of age Josh Allen is still a dynamic mobile dual threat elite quarterback for both the NFL and fantasy football however his fantasy points on the are being propped up by his efficiency around the goal line. Should anything change with his usage in the redzone and with his passing efficiency declining over the last 3 seasons his elite output years are likely to be on the downslope, the question is how steep is the slope?

Lamar Jackson BAL/QB

Jackson is a 29 year old QB who missed 4 games last season due to injury. Injury without a doubt is part of the calculus when considering where the bell curve lands on Lamar. Jackson has only played in two complete seasons over his 8 year career. Omitting his rookie season where he only started a handful of games, Jackson averaged 913 rushing yards and 4.5 rushing TD’s from years 2-7 and 3,143 passing yards and 26.7 passing TD’s.

Projecting Jackson’s stats to accommodate for his missed games in 2025. If Jackson played 17 games in 2025 his expected statistics would be: 456 rushing yards, 3 rushing TD’s, 3,333 passing yards, and 27 passing touchdowns. In summation Lamar has not been a dynamic pocket passer with the exception of his 2024 season (4172 yds, 41 TD’s) and if the yards and touchdowns regress on the ground what are we left with. A volatile profile who will likely either continue to decline in rushing output or be injured. Lamar Jackson may already be in the curve. His ceiling comes with a significant risk, draft wisely and consider a prolific pocket passer to be your team’s QB1.

Jalen Hurts PHI/QB

Hurts is a 27 year old QB who rushes a little different from most mobile quarterbacks. Hurts is not a prolific passer but the combination of his steady game management and his short yardage rushing power have led to massive success in the NFL and for fantasy football. Over Hurts’s 6 year career (omitting rookie season) he has averaged 695 rushing yards,12 rushing TD’s, 3,366 passing yards, and 20.8 passing TD’s per season. The Eagles have long used the “Tush Push” near the goal line where Hurts has boosted his fantasy output through rushing touchdowns averaging 13 per season from years 2 to 5. Hurts’s fantasy output is nearly entirely dependent on this goal line work. Last season Hurts finished as QB8 as the Eagles added a wrinkle handing the ball off in the “Tush Push” formation. The result is Hurts finished with 421 rushing yards and 8 rushing touchdowns both significantly down from his average. The long term outlook for Hurts may not be affected by age as much as some of the more dynamic runners since most of his points come in short yardage through power running but the volatility in the usage makes Hurts a risky play for upside. Hurts may be on the plus side of the bell curve for now until we know how Philadelphia plans to use him in the redzone this season.

Buying into narratives for value gains

RB Age Cliff

The Running Back Age Cliff is largely considered to be 27 years old by industry consensus. While there are always exceptions to the rule both plus and minus the longer you roster players approaching, at, or beyond this age range the more risk you assume. Contending teams should be rostering and seeking to acquire assets on the cheap in some instances and rebuilders should be seeking to get whatever they can for them before the season starts if possible.

Let’s take a look at some of the players that fall in this category to begin the 2026 season and see if this narrative holds true.

Alvin Kamara NO/RB

Kamara is a 30 year old RB who showed massive decline last season and missed 6 games to end the season. Kamara averaged 9.15 PPR points per game in 2025 with his peak output being 14.5 points. Kamara scored double digit fantasy points just 4 times last season. What did his age 26 season look like comparatively? Kamara missed just one game in 2020 and it was week 17 with COVID. Kamara averaged 25.12 points that year which included massive boom weeks of 44.7 and 56.2 point games. 2020 feels like a long time ago thankfully. Often RBs drop off quickly. In 2024 Kamara averaged 18.95 points per game and in 2023 17.92 points per game. In summation Kamara seemed to dip during his 2021(27 year old) season and maintained a similar level of production until last season. That trajectory is uncommon for RB’s but his sudden fall from grace in 2025 is not.

Aaron Jones MIN/RB

Jones is a 31 year old RB who showed some signs of decline both on the field play last season and in his ability to stay on the field. Jones missed 5 games in 2025. While on the field Jones managed 9.89 PPR points per game with a peak performance of 15.9 points. Jones finished 6 games with double digit PPR fantasy points. What did his age 26 season look like for comparison? In 2020 Jones missed 3 games and managed 18.35 points per game with a high output of 45.6! Jones may have held off his fall through his age 30 season as in 2024 he averaged 14.21 points per game which nearly identically matched his points per game from 2022 (14.56). Outside of an outlier season in 2023 (age 28 season) wherein Jones averaged 12.26 points during an injury marred season. Jones’s fall from grace was sudden and late but that shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone.

Najee Harris FA/RB

Harris is a 27 year old RB who suffered a season-ending achilles rupture in 2025. Harris is a different study as his career will not likely be able to naturally decline as the return from this injury for an RB is typically not successful and typically the player is never close to what they once were. Let’s see if there were signs of decline prior to the injury. In 2025 Harris played in just 3 games with only 15 carries so will omit that data. In 2024 during his 26 year old season Harris averaged 12.03 PPR points per game with a high output of 24.9 points. He reached 20 points just twice that season. In 2023 he averaged 11.5 and 13.1 in 2022. Based on the data and outside of outlier rookie season of 17.69 points per game it appears the data backs up the narrative at least for Harris that his cliff had not yet came. Perhaps the cliff for Harris was the major injury there is no way to know. In summation the Harris case study isn’t one we can extrapolate much from. Harris was never a superstar player so his decline may not have ever been steep however the case study does show the fragility of the position and while Harris may have reached his cliff in an unorthodox way he’s still on the downslope.

Buying into narratives for value gains

Roster Your RB1’s, RB3

Almost all of us consider rostering our star running backs’ handcuff. It obvious, if one of our most relied upon fantasy producers goes down to injury whoever is playing in his place is now who you want to insert into your starting lineup. It’s nothing new however consider this: While you still want who you perceive to be the Robin to your Batman when an injury happens to the lead back often and almost always that situation leads to a committee approach. If you are able to roster who you perceive to be the 2 and 3 do it. If you can’t acquire the 2 at least go for the 3. Often the 3 isn’t valued by whoever is rostering them and they can be had for next to nothing.

Let’s take a look at some of the players that fall in this category to begin the 2026 season, some scenarios that happened in 2025, and see if this narrative holds true.

Devin Singletary NYG/RB

Singletary is a 28 year old RB who was the RB3 in New York last season. While for most of the season Singletary wasn’t playable what happened after Cam Skattebo fell to a season ending injury in week 8? Singletary averaged 10.51 PPR points per game including weekly finishes of 10.3, 10.6, 17, 17.7, and 19.2 PPR points over the 9 week span. While nobody can know when a major injury is going to happen if you had been prepared rostering Singletary last season you had a pathway to not feel the pain of losing all of the fantasy points Skattebo was providing prior to his injury. In comparing the RB2 in New York Tyrone Tracy’s output during this span. Tracy averaged 13.57 PPR points per game during these 9 games. Tracy had 3 double digit outputs during this span with a couple of 24+ point showings but Singletary was the safer bet while Skattebo was out. Not all leagues have enough roster spots to fit RB3’s but if yours does this deep dive suggests you should consider.

Devin Neal NO/RB

Neal is a 22 year old RB who was the RB3 in New Orleans last season behind Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller. Kamara’s last game of the season was in week 12 due to injury and Miller didn’t play after week 7 due to injury and instantly Neal was the primary starter beginning week 13. Unfortunately for Neal his reign as starter didn’t last long due to injuries of his own but while he was atop the depth chart Neal managed 11.83 PPR points per game over 3 games and managed an output of 11.1 PPR points filling in for Kamara after his injury in week 12. Neal was a little different case study as he was a rookie and had been drafted in most rookie drafts in the 4th round of the 2025 rookie draft so he was likely rostered by many as a standalone asset and not as a handcuff. Even so he likely could have been acquired for very little as through week 11 Neal hadn’t received more than 46% snap share and had very little output including 5 weeks where he was a healthy scratch. If your starting RB is on the downslope of his age curve all the more reason players like Neal should be held on your rosters when you are able.

Michael Carter TEN/RB

Carter is a 27 year old RB who was the RB3 in Arizona in 2025. Carter operated as James Conner and Trey Benson’s backup. Conner fell in week 3 and his heir apparent Trey Benson only held up one game after Conner’s injury. Both lost for the season the keys were handed to the unlikely candidate Michael Carter. Carter made the most of his opportunity. While Arizona was very frequently down in games and they were the most pass heavy team in the league. Carter didn’t win anyone a week but was useable in fantasy. Carter was in a bit of a committee but for the most part led the backfield from week 5 on. Carter averaged 7.62 PPR points per game and had output highs of 18.3, 11.4, and 13.4 PPR points during that span. There are points in the grind of the season whilst navigating BYE weeks and injuries that plugging in Carter during his reign would’ve been a much needed salve to your rosters wounds.

Buying into narratives for value gains

Target Mobile Quarterbacks

It is widely understood that mobile quarterbacks produce more fantasy points per game than pocket passers. While this fact is undisputed, aside from the most elite players at the position are there players who push into the upper echelon of scoring surpassing some very good pocket passers?

Let’s take a look at some of the players that fall in this category to begin the 2026 season and see if this narrative holds true.

Jayden Daniels WAS/QB

Daniels is a 25 year old QB who is well known for his mobility. His lack of size has long been a concern for fantasy owners and in 2025 his injury riddled season is completely attributable to his running game. Daniels rushed for 891 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2024 but managed just 278 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2025 due to his playing just 7 games. Daniels represents the downside to mobility in your fantasy quarterback. While the points are great if the player can’t handle the workload or is misused by his coaching staff a season like Daniels had in 2025 is within the reasonable outcomes. While size certainly helps prevent injury to quarterbacks it’s not a guarantee. Anthony Richardson for instance has had a multitude of injuries on the field in his short career all of which were suffered while running. Daniels is 6’4” and 210 lbs. compared to Richardson who is 6’ 4” and 244 lbs. In summation mobile quarterbacks are a ceiling play that come with inherent risk. If you draft a mobile quarterback have a contingency plan.

Jaxson Dart NYG/QB

Dart is a 23 year old QB who is effective in the run game. Dart is built well in his lower half and seems to be able to take the punishment athletically except he has a bit of hero ball in him which has led to him taking unnecessary shots that have both led to missed time due to concussions, medical tent visits checking for concussion, and putting the franchise quarterback in danger of other injury thereby putting the franchise in danger of competing. Dart rushed for 487 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2025 in 14 games. Dart represents similar volatility as a mobile quarterback. Most believe Dart’s new head coach Harbaugh will be able to coach some of the recklessness out of Dart, you don’t want to take the killer instinct out of the prospect. Dart’s willingness to do what it takes to win is not a coachable trait not to mention having the ability is also not coachable. It is advisable to roster Dart’s handcuff if rostering him but when he starts things are usually positive for your fantasy outlook that week.

Bo Nix DEN/QB

Nix is a 26 year old QB who is more of a scrambler than a designed runner. Nix isn’t the biggest at 6’2” and 217 lbs. but he is electric at times when scrambling. Nix ran for 430 yards and 4 touchdowns in his rookie season and another 356 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2025. Nix represents the type of functional mobility that adds valuable points to your weekly output without the inherent risk of a quarterback who is being used as a functional weapon in the run game as often as some other players. All of this aside Nix did suffer an injury during a play while scrambling in the playoffs so there is no escaping risk with mobile quarterbacks. Non-mobile quarterbacks suffer injuries too but from my perspective the more your fantasy quarterback runs the more important you have a contingency plan in place and to what level of asset you need to spend on said contingency plan.

Buying into narratives for value gains

Touchdown Regression

It should be common knowledge that when an established player in the league has a sizeable touchdown spike in a season, that player is likely due for touchdown regression the following year. A multitude of factors could’ve led to the unusual outcome and the likelihood that the player will repeat is low, given the constant roster churn and coaching carousel that leads to unstable offensive eco systems these players have to navigate.

Let’s take a look at some of examples of this phenomenon in recent history and confirm this narrative holds true and we will have an example where you may want to take action before it’s too late.

Saquon Barkley PHI/RB

Barkley a 29 year old RB had a historic season in 2024 finishing RB2 overall in PPR scoring. His touchdowns spiked to 15 which matched his rookie season output. The factor to be aware of is however his average over the course of his career with the exception of these two season outcomes is 8.2. In 2025 Barkley regressed to his mean by only producing 9 touchdowns. While the Eagles attempted to run back the same type of offense that led them to a championship the year prior in 2025 they simply could not replicate it. There were issues on the offensive line and the passing game struggled, all things Barkley cannot control. It’s possible Barkley has another touchdown spike in his future however the actionable advise would be to sell a player after or during a spike season. The likelihood the player repeats is slim and the best value you’ll possibly ever get for the player is after a season like this or during. If you elect to hold with the expectation they’ll repeat you could be left holding the bag and the bag is lighter than it could have been.

Trey McBride ARI/TE

McBride is a 26 year old TE who is a stud. He’s the best or 2nd best TE in the league depending on who you talk to. McBride is the best player on his team which includes 1st rounders Marvin Harrison and Jeremiyah Love. Arizona is in rebuild mode, their defense is atrocious, offensive line subpar, and they will be running out a career backup in Jacoby Brissett for the 2nd consecutive season if he ends his holdout. Arizona did draft Carson Beck in the 3rd round in the 2026 draft but many including me believe Beck is also destined to be a career backup. McBride put up 11 touchdowns last season which catapulted his value to the moon. His prior touchdown high had been 3 in his 2nd season. McBride’s situation does not lead to an outlook that you could see as positive in the short term and even if Arizona is able to land an early draft pick in 2027 their history drafting quarterbacks in recent history hasn’t necessarily been the best. There is a very substantial chance McBride reached his peak last season, not due to his talent but rather the situation around him. His value may be the highest it will ever be right now. If you are a contender stop reading if you are not and you think you are going to hold on to McBride during your rebuild. I’d strongly advise against that. McBride will be great don’t get me wrong but 2025 great, I’m not so sure.

Christian McCaffrey SF/RB

McCaffrey a 30 year old RB has multiple instances of this phenomena occurring during his 9 year career. Christian has been a fantasy football stud for so long but within haystack that has been his prolific career lie a couple needles that represent his touchdown spike seasons. There have been a couple occasions where dynasty manager should’ve sold before regression. In 2019 during McCaffrey’s 3rd season he scored 19 total touchdowns, in 2020 McCaffrey missed 13 games due to injury, and in 2021 missed 9 games due to injury. Over those two seasons McCaffrey only managed 8 total touchdowns. In 2023 McCaffrey scored 21 total touchdowns, in 2024 McCaffrey missed 13 games due to injury and did not manage to score a touchdown. During McCaffrey’s career his heavy usage has equated to touchdown spikes but his heavy usage has been predictive of injury trouble in coming seasons. During McCaffrey’s career there have been two seasons where if you sold on the spike, it wouldn’t have been the best move. In 2018 McCaffrey scored 13 total touchdowns during his sophomore season, but he scored 19 in year 3 before being injured in 2020. IN 2022 McCaffrey scored 13 touchdowns and the following season scored 21 before being injured in 2024. In summation during the span of Christian McCaffrey’s career the fantasy manager should have traded McCaffrey 78% of the time at the end of the season to avoid a value fall.

Buying into narratives for value gains

WR Age Cliff

The Wide Receiver Age Cliff is largely considered to be 30 years old by industry consensus. While there are always exceptions to the rule both plus and minus the longer you roster players approaching, at, or beyond this age range the more risk you assume. Contending teams should be rostering and seeking to acquire assets in this range and rebuilders should be seeking to get whatever they can for them.

Let’s take a look at some of the players that fall in this category to begin the 2026 season and see if this narrative holds true.

Davante Adams LAR/WR

Adams is a 33 year old WR who finished as WR7 in PPR formats in 2025. Adams missed 3 games to finish the regular season but averaged 15.92 PPR points per game. Adams is clearly an outlier performing to this level in his age 33 season. What did he do his age 29 season for comparison? Adams missed a single game in 2021 and played very little in week 18 and yet averaged 21.52 PPR points per game. While his drop off has been gradual to the eye due to his immense talent it’s easy to see when looking at points per game statistics the boom games were much bigger in 2021. Adams posted 6 games over 30 PPR fantasy points in 2021 with the highest being 37.6! Adams did not post a 30 point game in 2025 but did score more than 20 points 4 times with his highest being 26.5. In summation while the dynasty fantasy community certainly drafts Adams with his age in mind, I think it’s clear that most do not see the decline that has already happened before our eyes. His useful fantasy football days may be more numbered than we know.

Mike Evans SF/WR

Evans is a 32 year old WR who had an injury marred 2025 season. Evans may be a bit of a different evaluation his injury history of late may be a large part of the equation in his decline. In 2025 Evans played 7 games for all intents and purposes. In those 7 games Evans averaged 12.11 PPR points per game. What did his age 29 season look like? In 2022 Evans missed three games but one was in week 18 against ATL as he was ill and Tampa had already locked up their division. In the 15 games he did play Evans averaged 15.03 PPR points per game. While this metric alone doesn’t show much in the way of decline Evans scored more than 30 points twice with his highest being 48.7!. In 2025 evans highest output was 19.2. In 2024 Evans missed 3 games and scored more than 30 points just once but did average 17.17. Finally 2023 in Evans’s age 30 season he missed just one game and averaged 16.62 points. In summation Evan’s has maintained his points per game rather well through the start of his 30’s but his booms have weakened and his injuries have become more frequent and are impacting his volatility.

Stefon Diggs WR/FA

Diggs is a 32 year old WR who played in New England in 2025. Diggs averaged 12.37 PPR points per game. In 2025 he scored over 20 points 3 times. What did his age 29 season look like? In 2022 Diggs scored 18.89 points per game and surpassed 20 points 9 times with a high of 44.8! Diggs’s decline has been obvious to the eye and his usage has been catered to his remaining skillset. Diggs was a phenomenal talent who has transcended his age to remain useful in the NFL and in fantasy even recovering from a torn ACL in 2025. Before his unfortunate injury in 2024 he was averaging 15.24 points per game. In summation the most talented players in the NFL can settle in to a role in the advanced years that doesn’t bring with it the upside of boom weeks but remain useful to both their team and to you the fantasy manager.

Buying into narratives for value gains

Year 3 Tight End Breakout

For decades it was well know and understood that a rookie tight end was not likely to make an impact early and would often not see the field enough and their first opportunity to breakout didn’t come until year 3. In recent years we’ve had several rookie tight ends hit the ground running and become game changers right out of the gate. While we can take a look at those who have and understand they are potentially generational talents who don’t come along every year I believe many will still follow the traditional path of development that will lead them to relevancy starting year 3.

Let’s take a look at some of the players that fall in this category to begin the 2026 season and see if this narrative holds true.

Dalton Schultz HOU/TE

Schultz is a 29 year old TE who began his career in Dallas. Schultz spent 5 seasons in Dallas where he had a prototypical start to his career. Schultz played in 11 games his rookie season and 16 games in his sophomore season. Schultz scored 2.14 PPR points per game in his rookie season and .1 PPR points per game in his sophomore season. In year 3 everything changed, over the last 6 seasons Schultz has averaged 9.7 PPR points per game between Dallas and Houston. Schultz simply wasn’t receiving targets or significant snap share over his first two seasons. The talent was likely always there but as is the case with a lot of tight ends, teams do not want them on the field in certain situations until they’ve deemed them ready or often there is an incumbent player who is prioritized in the passing game or both.

Juwan Johnson NO/TE

Johnson in a 29 year old TE who also followed the year 3 breakout path. Johnson played in 7 games in his rookie season and 14 games in his sophomore season. He averaged 1.12 PPR fantasy points per game in his rookie season and 3.78 PPR fantasy points per games in his sophomore season. Over the last 4 seasons Johnson’s output increased to 8.49 PPR points per game. Once again Johnson’s lack of output to start his career was due to a lack of targets and snap share.

Ben Sinnott WAS/TE

Sinnott is a 23 year old TE who so far has followed the year 3 breakout path. The coming season will determine whether or not he was always destined to breakout. Sinnott played in 17 games his rookie season and 16 in his sophomore season. Sinnott’s average snap share in his rookie campaign was 26.47% and he received 5 total targets. Sinnott’s average snap share in his sophomore campaign was 34.8% and he received 13 total targets. Sinnott got a little run last season but as you may remember the better part of that run was with backup quarterback Marcus Mariota at the helm. For those who have written off Ben Sinnott as a bust of a 2nd round pick I’d point out that he’s following the same path as Juwan Johnson and Dalton Schultz to start their careers. Sinnott’s pedigree and athleticism should lead him to fantasy relevance despite the addition of another tight end in the offseason. The addition of another tight end does not preclude Sinnott breaking out as the league moves ever more toward 12 personnel. Sinnott is currently being drafted 262 overall in your dynasty startups. Well worth the price of admission in my opinion. Don’t be jaded by outlier rookie TE breakouts as that outcome is rare.

ROOKIE DYNASTY DRAFT THEORY

ROOKIE DYNASTY DRAFT THEORY HIT POINTS

NOT ONE OF THESE POINTS SHOULD PROHIBIT YOU FROM SELECTING A PLAYER AT ANY GIVEN POINT DURING YOUR ROOKIE DRAFTS. THESE SHOULD BE USED TO INFORM A DECISION OR CREATE A POSITION ON A PLAYER WHEN YOU ARE ON THE CLOCK AND IN DECISION MODE OR ON THE FENCE.

All time hit rate based on real NFL draft capital:

ROUND QB RB WR TE ALL
1 35.1% 78.6% 28.6% 60.0% 40.0%
2 12.5% 41.7% 16.1% 15.8% 21.5%
3 0.0% 22.2% 13.0% 10.3% 13.6%
4 5.9% 8.0% 2.2% 2.9% 4.8%
5 0.0% 8.3% 6.4% 4.5% 5.8%
6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 6.7% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4%

Wide Receivers drafted 2nd round in the NFL low hit rates:

Top Names Since 2016
AJ Brown DK Metcalf George Pickens Juju Smith-Schuster Tee Higgins
Elijah Moore Christian Watson Terrace Marshall Luther Burden III Alec Pierce
Curtis Samuel Michael Thomas Jayden Higgins Michael Pittman Jr. Wan’Dale Robinson
Skyy Moore Ladd McConkey Tyler Boyd Jayden Reed Rashee Rice
John Metchie II Omar Cooper Jr. Christian Kirk Tre Harris KC Concepcion
Deebo Samuel Tyquan Thornton Rondale Moore Marvin Mims Parris Campbell

Wide Receiver dead zone in your rookie draft:

Receivers disproportionately do not hit in this range

Position Range Sample Size 1+ Hit Seasons 2+ Hit Seasons 3+ Hit Seasons
QB 2.07-2.12 5 20.00% 20.00% 20.00%
RB 2.07-2.12 17 24.00% 12.00% 6.00%
WR 2.07-2.12 24 17.00% 4.00% 4.00%
TE 2.07-2.12 6 50.00% 50.00% 17.00%

Running backs drafted rounds 1-3 in NFL draft are a great bet:

2014-2024 QB1 & TE1 FINISHES RB2 & WR2 OR BETTER FINISHES
Round QB RB WR TE ALL
1.00% 60.50% 85.7% 54.0% 70.0% 61.6%
2.00% 12.50% 70.8% 35.7% 35.0% 41.7%
3.00% 0.00% 48.6% 25.0% 10.3% 25.4%
4.00% 5.90% 18.0% 4.4% 13.3% 11.3%
5.00% 0.00% 19.4% 8.5% 3.8% 9.6%
6.00% 0.00% 2.2% 1.7% 0.0% 1.4%
7.00% 6.70% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2%

Draft capital matters for running backs when YPR ≥ 8.24:

Rounds YPR ≥ 8.24
1 or 2 91.7%
3 or 4 44.4%
5, 6, or 7 18.9%

YPR matters when drafting running backs in general:

YPR HITS SAMPLE HIT RATE

8.24 6 33 18.2%
8.24-10.0 8 27 29.6%
10.0-12.0 13 29 44.8%
12.0-15.0 4 10 40.0%
15.0+ 1 1 100.0%

We all know about the classic metrics used for years to determine who you should target in your rookie drafts. Metrics like draft capital, yards per route run, breakout age, dominator rating, target share, opportunity share, and route participation. Those should always be utilized but the above are what I’ve found predictive and helpful for me to target late round players. I hope you find the same success. I’ll add to this as more useful metrics come to light.

Cheers,

IndyMana